Deutsche Bank analysts have calculated that the US economy is on the path of the first boom-bust cycle in 40 years, and will enter a recession by the end of the year, writes Business Insider.
However, the investment bank has warned that a recession will be milder, though inevitable, as core inflation is still too high.
The outlook is pretty bearish among experts who are convinced that the recession has already affected the world's largest economy, but no one has noticed.
This cycle is driven by the Fed’s “super cheap” money policy in 2020-2021, which has given rise to high inflation and a sharp monetary reaction to it.
And although the onset of a recession was predicted in the second half of 2023 and even in the first half of 2024, today analysts are confident that it will begin in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The burden on the US economy is exacerbated by high interest rates and a wave of bankruptcies in the banking sector.